Sunday, October 18, 2009

Warmer start to the week...Soaker on the way?

After being well below normal for quite some time, some warmer temps are moving into the state. Sunday sounds like it's going to be the nicest day with highs in the mid to upper 50's across Eastern MN and Western WI, low 60's across Western MN, and even possibly some 70 degree temps across Southwest MN. Here's some facts about the month of October so far from the National Weather Service: A RECORD COLD...WET AND SNOWY TWO WEEKS IN OCTOBER FOR THE TWIN CITIES.

THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE FIRST 2 WEEKS IN OCTOBER IS 63.
THIS YEAR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 47 DEGREES.
THAT IS THE COLDEST FIRST 2 WEEKS OF OCTOBER ON RECORD.

THE PREVIOUS COLDEST WAS 52 DEGREES IN 1875.
THE MOST RECENT COLD WAS 54 DEGREES IN 1979.

THE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE FIRST 2 WEEKS IN OCTOBER IS 42.
THIS YEAR THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS 36 DEGREES.
THAT IS NUMBER 10 COLDEST. TIED WITH 1985...1987...AND 1993.

IT WAS IN THE TOP TEN WETTEST.

SO FAR IT IS THE 7TH SNOWIEST FULL OCTOBER.
THE SNOWIEST OCTOBER IS...1991 HALLOWEEN SNOW STORM...WITH 8.2 INCHES.

MISERY LOVES COMPANY...THE TWIN CITIES IS NOT STANDING ALONE IN THE
COLD RAIN.

ST CLOUD MINNESOTA AND EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN SHARED THE RECORD COLDEST
HIGH TEMPS.

A mid week soaking appears to be on the way for Minnesota and Wisconsin, with both the GFS and ECMWF showing a potent low moving through the area. The ECMWF takes the low up through South Central MN, then northeast towards the U.P. of Michigan. The GFS is further east, taking the low up through Southwest Wisconsin, then lingering in the area before moving off to the northeast. Canadian models are further west, having the low enter Southwest MN, then moving it east and a little north to have it move right over the Twin Cities. All of the models show this warm enough to be all rain. If this were winter time, we would be looking at a large winter storm over the area. However, this won't be the case, due to the warm temps at pretty much all layers of the atmosphere. It looks to be a wind maker as well, with all of the models showing the low winding up pretty good. Early early guestimates for rainfall looks like it could be anywhere between 1-3 inches, but that is early and will likely change with each run. Until then enjoy the next couple days, because colder air will fill in, once again, behind the approaching mid week storm system. Below are forecast models from ECMWF (Top), GFS (Middle) and Canadian (Bottom), at 7pm on Thursday.





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