Tuesday, March 29, 2011

The winter that won't go away

This winter was predicted to be a long, snowy winter, and to this point it certainly has lived up to its hype. Almost 70 inches of snow here in Eau Claire with places in Minnesota approaching the 90 inch mark. Most of the snow had melted a couple weeks ago, before another system came in, dropping anywhere between 6 and 12 inches of new snow, and pretty much gave us back what we had melted. Again, we warmed up, and again this snow melted, and again a potent storm system came through and dropped 6-12 more inches of snow across parts of central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. As this snow pack had melted, the moisture from the snow eventually ran into the rivers, and put some rivers and streams over their banks. Potential record flooding is possible along several points of the Minnesota and Red River Valleys during this spring, and it doesn't look like we will be seeing a long enough stretch of dry weather to cut down on the flooding potential.

This week, fortunately, is looking somewhat quiet, with just a few precip chances for the end week. At this point, it doesn't appear to be anything significant. Surface temps should be well above freezing during the day with temps dropping a bit below freezing overnight Thursday into Friday. Saturday looks like a nice day with temps in the upper 40's to near 50. Sunday into early next week continues to be the time to monitor, as a low pressure system passes south of the area, and a fetch from the Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms could break out across southern MN and western WI during this time, with the potential for half inch or more of rain. This system is a ways out, so plenty can change between now and then. Models haven't really locked a solution yet, so there is little certainty on what will potentially happen. The central plains and parts of the south will need to monitor this as well, as severe weather could be possible from Missouri on south through Texas on Sunday afternoon/evening. Pretty strong cap may be in place, but again this is a ways out so lots can change. Something else to note is some of longer range forecasting tools are hinting at the potential for another shot of below normal temps as we get further into April. I'm really hoping this changes, and we could get into some warmer temps to get rid of the remaining snow, and push us into summer and thunderstorm season. Until then, we'll have to deal with this roller coaster that we in Wisconsin (or Minnesota) call spring.