Quite pattern, but trending colder

After an exciting week last week and the record breaking low (falling just short of breaking the U.S. lower 48 record for a non tropical system), we have fallen back into a quiet weather pattern. That quiet pattern will hold, at least for a little while longer. In the mean time, a shot of cold air looks to work its way down from Canada, covering a good chunk of the eastern U.S. This could spell trouble for the east coast as this trough digs south and interacts with a system working up the coast. Heavy rain and mountain snows appear likely with this system, but the models are having a difficult time coming to a common solution on the strength of that system. For around here, the week will start out decent, but a cold front coming through Tuesday/Wednesday will cool temps down to the 40's to end the week. Temps should moderate some to end next weekend as the ridge out to our west begins to work east. Could see some light precip forming along with the frontal passage, and maybe a little light mix on Thursday, but other than that, things will be quiet.

Just taking a peak into the longer range, the GFS has been hinting at a pretty good shot of cold air coming down. Riding along that edge of colder air could be a decent storm system, and potentially the first widespread snowstorm for somewhere close to home. It's a ways out, and plenty can change between now and then, but the GFS hasn't lost it yet, and even the ECMWF is hinting at something getting spun up. It is something to monitor, but keep in mind that most models really tend to struggle during the transition of the seasons. Forecasters have been calling for a snowy winter, so we'll see if things will get going in the next 10 or so days.

Record setting day across the Midwest

After what has been a slow, dull, boring (but actually kind of nice) October, mother nature quickly reminded us where we all live, and how quickly things can change. A low pressure system, with a cold front attached moved across the northern United States, while a secondary low moved up from the south and merged into one "megalow". The low moving from the south ended up becoming the main low, and rapidly deepened (or strengthened) bringing some incredibly strong winds along with it. The main low bottomed out around 28.20 inches of mercury (954.96mb) at Bigfork in Itasca County. This shatters the old Minnesota lowest pressure record of 28.43 that was set in the November 10, 1998 storm at both Austin and Albert Lea. The state of Wisconsin also broke their state record for pressure, with Superior recording a reading of 28.39 inches of mercury (961.3mb). That broke a record that stood for more than 28 years, dating back to April 3rd, 1982. The measurement was taken in Green Bay. Below is a graphic showing the progression of the low, courtesy of the NWS Office in La Crosse.




With this, the storm brought sustained winds between 20 and 30mph, with gusts of 40-60+mph. This caused power outages, trees to fall, and people's lawn furniture to end up in their neighbors yard. This low was also able to tap into some moisture from the south, and cold air from the north, creating the first decent snowfall across Minnesota and North Dakota. Blizzard warnings, High Wind warnings, and a whole slew of other advisories cover the area. The cold front extending from the low ended up causing problems across a good portion of the central and eastern United States. Severe storms containing damaging winds and tornadoes caused damage across parts of southern Wisconsin, Tennessee, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, as well as a few other states. This is a link to a more detailed description of what happened, courtesy of the Minnesota State Climatology Office http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/low_pressure_101026.htm Below is a satellite image of the low, with the cold front extending south off of it.

Yawn....

Well, what a stretch of weather we have had here in Western Wisconsin. It has been at least 15 consecutive days of dry weather, and that trend looks to last another 4 days at least. This dry stretch, however, was needed after the flooding rains most areas received about a month or so ago. Farmers have been taking advantage of this stretch of dry, warm weather by getting their harvesting done before we see any more rain, or even snow. Yes, that dreaded "S" word will be being used more and more in the coming months, but it shouldn't be seen for a little while yet. However, what is good for some, can be bad for others. While the farmers and most of the general public has been enjoying this stretch of dry weather, it is now to the point that the things leaves and grass are getting too dry, leading to a high fire risk across most of the area. So, quite frankly, some rain wouldn't be the worst thing in the world right now. It does, however, look like we will have to wait until next week before any chance at some measurable rain reaches the area. First things first...

Today looks to be mostly sunny, with maybe a few clouds here and there, highs right around 58 degrees. Tuesday night, a few clouds, temps dropping to around 38 degrees. Wednesday will be breezy in advance of a cold front that will be coming through. Temps will be slightly warmer with highs getting to around 60 degrees.

Looking further down the road, a change will begin taking place over a good portion of the United States, however how that change will unfold is still uncertain. A potent system will be coming onshore over the Pacific northwest this coming weekend, bringing with it a much more active pattern, with some long range models spinning up some decent storm systems that could hit the area with rain, wind, and colder temperatures. In fact, looking wayyy down the road, the GFS is hinting at the potential for some accumulating snow a couple days before Halloween. Keep in mind that this is far in the model, and will likely change as time goes on, but there has been a trend that at least one decent system (likely rain) will hit the Upper Midwest sometime next week. Below is a look at the system, per the GFS, the morning of October 29th. Again, it is a ways away, but when you're bored, you grasp for anything.



I will continue watching next week to see how next week unfolds. Until then, enjoy this (likely) final stretch of nice weather, because this could honestly be it until next spring.

Wx Forecast Competition Day 4

Warm, dry temps look to continue for the Brownsville area on Friday, with temps similar to what they saw on Thursday. A frontal passage is expected late on Friday into Saturday, but it won't really affect temps all that much.

(06z Friday - 06z Saturday)
High Temp - 92
Low temp - 68
Wind - 10 knots
Precip - 0.00

Wx Forecast Competition Day 3

Two days down, many to go. Brownsville, however, is just about wrapped up. High pressure contiues to dominate Texas, bringing sunny and dry conditions to the Brownsville area. Thursday should feature near normal temps, with an ever so slight increase in temps expected from Wednesday. Below are my predictions for Thursday.

(06z Thurs - 06z Fri)
High temp - 90 (91 degrees)
Low temp - 66 (66 degrees)
Wind speed - 8 knots (8 knots)
Precip 0.00 (0.00)

Around Eau Claire, temps should continue to be near their normal values, before a sharp cool down arrives just in time for the weekend. A strong area of high pressure will sag down from Canada and settle over Wisconsin Saturday night, which should make conditions perfect for the first widespread frost/freeze of the year. Advisories and possibly warnings will probably be needed. For tonight, expect lows to drop into the upper 40's with light winds. Thursday, highs once again in the upper 60's. Winds will be out of the northwest at 5-15mph. No precipitation is expected.

High temp - 67
Low temp - 48
Wind speed - 10 knots
Precip - 0.00

Wx Forecast Challenge

Second day of the challenge, with a pretty close day 1 at this point. Temps appear to be a bit warmer for tomorrow. NWS is predicting highs in the low 90's, but I think upper 80's may be more appropriate. High pressure remains in control, so precip will be nil. This may be adjusted a bit before 7pm if I'm around...but if not, so be it.

(Wed 06z - Thurs 06z)
High temp - 88 (89 degrees)
Low temp - 62 (63 degrees)
Wind - 8 knots (9 knots)
Precip - 0.00 (0.00)

Wx Forecasting Competition

So a good friend of mine encouraged me to participate in a weather forecasting challenge over the next 10 or so weeks, and after some thought I agreed. I obviously don't have the training that others within the competition have, and since I don't go to any schools for meteorology, I can't even figure out what my scores are, but it still seemed like it could be fun, and maybe a chance to learn about forecasting in other parts of the country. The point is to come up with a high and low temp, wind speed, and exact precip amount. The time frame is 06z Tues through 06z Wed...then again from 06z Wed through 06z Thurs...and so on, until 06z on Saturday. The first place is Brownsville, TX.

(06z Tues-06z Wed)
High temp - 83 (85 degrees)
Low temp - 62 (63 degrees)
Wind speed - 10 kts (11 knots)
Precip - 0.00 (0.00)

I will try to come back and post the actual numbers recorded for each day, as long as I actually remember to. Should be an entertaining 10 (or so) weeks.

Around Minnesota and Wisconsin, high pressure appear to be in control through the week with a chance of some rain showers in Northern MN and Northern WI Wednesday afternoon and evening...and now an ever so slight chance at some drizzle on Saturday, but I'm not sold on that yet. This should allow the rivers to continue to drop to their normal levels and farm fields to dry out. First good chance at widespread frost comes this weekend (Oct. 2nd and 3rd), and a good freeze potential for the usual cold spots Saturday night into Sunday morning. Severe weather season appears to be done with for the year across Minnesota and Wisconsin, unless one of those unusual storms spins up and drops a ton of snow in the Dakotas and slams Minnesota and Wisconsin with one last burst of severe storms.