Thursday, September 30, 2010

Wx Forecast Competition Day 4

Warm, dry temps look to continue for the Brownsville area on Friday, with temps similar to what they saw on Thursday. A frontal passage is expected late on Friday into Saturday, but it won't really affect temps all that much.

(06z Friday - 06z Saturday)
High Temp - 92
Low temp - 68
Wind - 10 knots
Precip - 0.00

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Wx Forecast Competition Day 3

Two days down, many to go. Brownsville, however, is just about wrapped up. High pressure contiues to dominate Texas, bringing sunny and dry conditions to the Brownsville area. Thursday should feature near normal temps, with an ever so slight increase in temps expected from Wednesday. Below are my predictions for Thursday.

(06z Thurs - 06z Fri)
High temp - 90 (91 degrees)
Low temp - 66 (66 degrees)
Wind speed - 8 knots (8 knots)
Precip 0.00 (0.00)

Around Eau Claire, temps should continue to be near their normal values, before a sharp cool down arrives just in time for the weekend. A strong area of high pressure will sag down from Canada and settle over Wisconsin Saturday night, which should make conditions perfect for the first widespread frost/freeze of the year. Advisories and possibly warnings will probably be needed. For tonight, expect lows to drop into the upper 40's with light winds. Thursday, highs once again in the upper 60's. Winds will be out of the northwest at 5-15mph. No precipitation is expected.

High temp - 67
Low temp - 48
Wind speed - 10 knots
Precip - 0.00

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Wx Forecast Challenge

Second day of the challenge, with a pretty close day 1 at this point. Temps appear to be a bit warmer for tomorrow. NWS is predicting highs in the low 90's, but I think upper 80's may be more appropriate. High pressure remains in control, so precip will be nil. This may be adjusted a bit before 7pm if I'm around...but if not, so be it.

(Wed 06z - Thurs 06z)
High temp - 88 (89 degrees)
Low temp - 62 (63 degrees)
Wind - 8 knots (9 knots)
Precip - 0.00 (0.00)

Wx Forecasting Competition

So a good friend of mine encouraged me to participate in a weather forecasting challenge over the next 10 or so weeks, and after some thought I agreed. I obviously don't have the training that others within the competition have, and since I don't go to any schools for meteorology, I can't even figure out what my scores are, but it still seemed like it could be fun, and maybe a chance to learn about forecasting in other parts of the country. The point is to come up with a high and low temp, wind speed, and exact precip amount. The time frame is 06z Tues through 06z Wed...then again from 06z Wed through 06z Thurs...and so on, until 06z on Saturday. The first place is Brownsville, TX.

(06z Tues-06z Wed)
High temp - 83 (85 degrees)
Low temp - 62 (63 degrees)
Wind speed - 10 kts (11 knots)
Precip - 0.00 (0.00)

I will try to come back and post the actual numbers recorded for each day, as long as I actually remember to. Should be an entertaining 10 (or so) weeks.

Around Minnesota and Wisconsin, high pressure appear to be in control through the week with a chance of some rain showers in Northern MN and Northern WI Wednesday afternoon and evening...and now an ever so slight chance at some drizzle on Saturday, but I'm not sold on that yet. This should allow the rivers to continue to drop to their normal levels and farm fields to dry out. First good chance at widespread frost comes this weekend (Oct. 2nd and 3rd), and a good freeze potential for the usual cold spots Saturday night into Sunday morning. Severe weather season appears to be done with for the year across Minnesota and Wisconsin, unless one of those unusual storms spins up and drops a ton of snow in the Dakotas and slams Minnesota and Wisconsin with one last burst of severe storms.